Palm oil prices fall throughout December, but could rise again
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.22 USD
1 USD = 0.79 GBP
*Exchange rates calculated and market prices reported on March 4, 2025
Crude Palm Oil
Average World Bank February 2025 palm oil price
US$1067/tonne (-US$3)
Malaysia palm market
Palm follows soy oil down
The Malaysia Palm Oil Settlement Price rallied a little in the second half of February 2025 but then slipped towards the end of the month. By the first day of March trading, it had reached RM4,538/tonne (US$998). That was 2.7% lower than the price on the 21st February of RM4,664/tonne (US$1,026) which was the highest value since mid-December 2025. The latest price was 15.3% more than the year before, but 36.1% lower than the all-time high in April 2022.
There has been pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices recently as values followed soy oil prices down in Chicago and elsewhere. Indonesia has also lowered its palm oil reference price for March to US$954.50/tonne, with an export tax of US$124/tonne remaining.
Reduced Malaysian palm exports in February also put pressure on the market. They were down 8.5% according to inspection company AmSpec Malaysia and by 11% for cargo surveyor Intertek.
Malaysia CPO Settlement Price RM
Vegetable oil
Small drop in oilseed production
In its most recent global vegetable oil report, the USDA’s forecast for 2024/25 was:
“The global oilseeds production forecast is down 2.7 million tons to 677.7 million this month on lower Argentina and Paraguay soybean production, not offset by an increase in China cottonseed and Kazakhstan sunflower production. Oilseeds trade remains unchanged at 207.3 million tons, with higher U.S. rapeseed exports offsetting lower sunflowerseed exports by Argentina. Oilseeds ending stocks are lowered 4.3 million tons to 140.0 million on lower Argentina and Brazil soybean and Argentina sunflowerseed and peanut stocks. Global crush is raised nearly 600,000 tons to 561.3 million on higher Brazil soybean crush, not offset by lower Paraguay soybean crush. Global meal trade is up 700,000 tons to 108.1 million on higher Brazil soybean meal exports, despite lower shipments from Paraguay. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is lowered to $10.10 per bushel.”
Average global palm oil prices in January were down 0.3% to US$1,067/tonne, according to the World Bank. That price was 24.5% more than the year before. Soybean oil prices rose 2.0% in the month to US$1,068/tonne, which was 17.2% more than the year before. Meanwhile, rapeseed oil prices rose 0.9% between January and February to US$1,159/tonne, with a 20.4% increase over the year. Sunflower oil prices rose by 31.9% over the 12-month period to US$1,220/tonne, a 1.1% increase on the month.
Average world soybean oil prices in US$/tonne
Rapeseed oil
Average world rapeseed oil price in US$/tonne
Sunflower oil
Average world sunflower oil prices in US$/tonne
Shipping Update
Shipping costs at a 12-month low
There has been another drop in shipping costs amid fears of a global economic downturn.
The Drewry World Container Index dropped 6% in the week to 27 February to stand at US$2,629 for a 40-foot container, which was 23.6% the month before. The value was the lowest of the past year and compared to US$5,937 in July 2024.
The Rotterdam to Shanghai route has shown the biggest drop over the last year – down 45% to US$2,586/40 ft container. In contrast, there was a 32% increase in the cost from New York to Rotterdam to US$835.
From the 27th January 2025 Drewry World Container Index report:
- The Drewry WCI composite index decreased 6% to $2,629 per 40ft container, 75% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021 and the lowest since May 2024. However, the index was 85% higher than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic).
- The average YTD composite index is $3,372 per 40ft container, $489 higher than the 10-year average of $2,882 (inflated by the exceptional 2020-22 Covid period).
- Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 11% or $411 to $3,477 per 40ft container, closely followed by the rates from Shanghai to New York which decreased 10% or $533 to $4,593 per 40ft container. Likewise, rates from Shanghai to Genoa fell 2% or $90 to $3,747 per 40ft container and those from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Rotterdam to New York reduced 1% to $2,586 and $2,374 per 40ft container, respectively. On the other hand, rates from Rotterdam to Shanghai and New York to Rotterdam increased 1% to $503 and $835 per 40ft container, respectively. Meanwhile, rates from Los Angeles to Shanghai remained stable. Drewry expects rates to continue to decrease next week due to increased shipping capacity.
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
View Drewry shipping data here.
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.